An investigation and optimisation of electrical power generation scenarios for a sustainable Malaysia

Abstract

The Malaysian Government has been introducing fuel diversification policies over the past decade by considering other sources of fuel such as alternative and renewable energy into the electricity mix as a measure to lengthen the oil and gas reserves against premature depletion. Since electricity consumption forms about a fifth of the total energy consumption, and directly impacts the country’s economy and people’s well-being, it is necessary to pay emphasis on Malaysia’s intermediate to long-term power sector planning by identifying sustainable options which will enhance Malaysia’s energy security and simultaneously mitigate climate change in line with the commitments set in the Paris Agreement. This study attempts to provide a comprehensive foresight analysis in relation to the electricity generation portfolios by exploring different energy resources and technologies to meet the electricity demand through 2015 to 2050 by a modelling approach known as Malaysia TIMES Electricity Model (MYTEM). The multiple scenarios which collectively forms MYTEM were developed by deploying ‘The Integrated Market Allocation-Energy Flow Optimisation Model System’ or in brief known as the TIMES model generator. The examined scenarios are business as usual (BAU), the two nuclear scenarios where one of them simulates the inclusion of the 2.0 GW nuclear power (NUC2) and the other demonstrates the nuclear expansion plan to reach cumulative nuclear power to 4.0 GW (NUC4), as well as the four renewable plus storage scenarios which were specified based on the application of 6 and 7 types of renewable technologies plus the integration of 7 and 14 days storage generation capacity respectively (RNW6S7, RNW6S14, RNW7S7, and RNW7S14). The results indicated that by 2050, the electricity demand for Malaysia is expected to grow to 892.30 PJ from base year levels of 475.92 PJ. One of the significant findings from the renewable energy assessment revealed that based on the International Electro-technical Commission (IEC) standards, class II offshore wind turbines have great potential for grid-connected utility-scale power generation in the South China Sea since the wind speed falls within the class II velocity range from 7.5 ms-1 to 8.5 ms-1 at altitudes between 50 to 200 m. Apart from this, Malaysia has great potential to gain electricity yield from other renewable resources such as hydro, solar, geothermal, biomass, and biogas. Out of all the MYTEM scenarios, the RNW7S14 scenario would be the most feasible model for implementation from an investment perspective and the most effective model for CO2 abatement, followed by RNW7S7, RNW6S14, and RNW6S7. The intermittency issue caused by renewables can be resolved with the integration of pumped hydro storage (PHS) system into the grid. ii To conclude, MYTEM substantiated that Malaysia does not need to embrace nuclear power as other renewable-based technologies such as hydropower could generate the equivalent baseload and peak load electricity, while solar photovoltaics combined with PHS system could cater to the rise in electricity demand which occurs in the afternoon due to the increase in air-condition usage and industrial sector demand. Furthermore, MYTEM demonstrated that by 2050, 98.37% of the electricity generation portfolio could be sourced from renewable energy which simultaneously enhances Malaysia’s energy security and decarbonises the environment. Ultimately, this study contributed to knowledge by providing a novel consolidated research methodological framework in modelling the reference energy system specially customised for electrical power that could be applied to other long term energy resource optimisation studies at country level