a Population changes and labour market accounts in Syria, 1994-2004

Abstract

Population growth in Syria 1994-2004 varied regionally, as did economic growth, and it was at the regional scale of Syrian labour market where the effects of these changes were seen. The contribution of this thesis is to empirically examine how the processes in the regional labour markets were influenced by demographic changes and varying economic opportunities. It examines these variations and determines how the regions responded to imbalances of growth in labour supply and demand. The methodology of labour market accounts distinguishes the role of demographic and economic components in each regional labour market, and identifies how far natural growth of the economically active population was absorbed by adequate employment growth in the period 1994-2004. Most regions saw substantial job shortfalls, largely due to increasing numbers of young people seeking work at a time of slow economic growth. This thesis shows the regional variations in this problem, which in some regions was highlighted by the extent to which female economic participation increased from traditionally very low levels. The combination of job shortfalls and changing economic activity rates led to an increasing labour supply imbalance, and consequently increasing unemployment or net out-migration. This research shows that the labour market accounts method can be applied to the regions of Syria. The insights gained from the analysis suggest that similar analyses may be worth pursuing in countries with similar socio-economic challenges arising from stalling economic growth when labour supply was still growing due to previously rapid demographic growth and a ‘catching up’ in female economic participation. These circumstances have led this thesis to introduce the supply imbalance measure to labour market accounts: presenting the data in this way highlights economic and social challenges emerging in each region. The research also highlights limitations to applying this method in a situation where the datasets present some difficulties and the populations captured by each are variable. The implications gained from this research have to be seen rather hypothetical now that Syira’s population is radically changing due to ongoing conflict which began in 2011.