Competition and subsidy in commercial shipbuilding

Abstract

Limitations in the shipbuilding industry’s understanding of the precise workings of its market have led to difficulties in the prosecution of a subsidy and countervailing measures case in WTO and to obstacles in the furtherance of an international shipbuilding agreement in OECD. Weaknesses stem in particular from lack of precision in the definition of the market, from incomplete understanding of the concept of ‘like product’ as it relates to commercial shipbuilding, and from limited research into cross price elasticity. In this dissertation the nature and boundaries of the market are investigated, leading to a simple definition of the ‘international commercial shipbuilding market’. This differs from existing definitions, for example in OECD and EU, in that it is based on the attributes of the shipbuilder, rather than attributes of the product. A meaning of ‘like product’ that is consistent with WTO case law is defined for commercial shipbuilding, with the conclusion that likeness between products should be determined by competition for the same units of capacity. Technical substitutability of a unit of shipbuilding capacity is analysed in relation to factors that determine competitiveness, concluding that substitutability is wide with few exceptions and that technical aspects of the products are therefore of limited significance in determination of ‘likeness’. Correlation and linear regression are used to demonstrate empirically that cross price elasticity exists in the commercial shipbuilding market, thereby establishing that apparently dissimilar products, such as an LNG tanker and a capesize bulk carrier, may compete for capacity in the same market and can therefore be considered as ‘like products’. The nature of market leaders, pursuing competitiveness through high investment and economies of scale, and the persistence of cycles in demand mean that subsidy and conflict are likely to remain a feature of competition in international commercial shipbuilding. Conclusions presented in this dissertation will assist in the future analysis and definition of such conflicts and hopefully also in resolution. It is hoped that conclusions will also assist in the pursuit of improved governance of the industry at the inter-governmental level.